Saturday, March 29, 2025
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to stay in office, though final election results late Monday indicated he may fall short of securing a majority in Parliament.
Despite strong pre-election projections in favour of the ruling Liberal Party, the race turned out to be much tighter than expected, with the Liberals and the opposition Conservatives separated by less than three percent in vote share.
Carney, who made his electoral debut this year, won his riding of Nepean in Ontario decisively, capturing nearly two-thirds of the vote. However, his party’s national performance was less conclusive. By late evening, the Liberals were projected to win around 163 seats, while the Conservatives were close behind with 146.
Ontario played a crucial role, with the Conservatives gaining more than a dozen seats in the province, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), offsetting some of the Liberal gains in Quebec. Meanwhile, the Liberals struggled to make inroads in the Prairie provinces—Alberta and Saskatchewan—where they historically perform poorly.
Several ridings remained too close to call, with victory margins within 100 votes, suggesting that the final seat count could still shift slightly.
In terms of overall support, the Liberals led with nearly 44% of the vote, marking a significant improvement of over 10 percentage points from the 2021 federal election. The Conservative Party trailed closely with just over 41%, keeping the contest exceptionally tight.
Former Cabinet Minister Arif Virani praised Carney’s “ambitious” campaign, crediting it with reviving the Liberal base and helping the party defy earlier predictions of decline.
This election marked an unusual shift in Canadian politics—it turned into a near two-party race. Smaller federal parties, such as the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Greens, saw their vote shares shrink drastically, with neither able to surpass 10%.
Voter turnout is expected to exceed the 2021 figure of under 63%, though it likely won’t break the record of 79.4% set in 1958. A significant 7.3 million Canadians voted early, a 25% increase from the 2021 advance polling numbers.
Carney’s campaign messaging emphasized unity and resistance against foreign interference—particularly from U.S. President Donald Trump, who had suggested Canada would be better off as America’s 51st state. Carney pushed back on this narrative in his final appeal to voters, repeating his campaign slogan “Canada Strong” and declaring in a video: “This is Canada—we decide what happens here. Let’s choose to be united and strong.”
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre also responded to Trump’s comments with a strong rebuke on social media, stating: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign, and independent, and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”
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If Carney ultimately forms the next government, it will mark a dramatic and fast-paced political rise. A former Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney only entered politics this year. He won the Liberal leadership on March 9 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation and was sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14. Just six days later, he called a snap election, advancing the scheduled vote from October.
Trudeau’s exit, amid plummeting approval ratings, may have also helped the Liberals rebound under Carney’s leadership.
With most votes now cast, Canada awaits the final tally to determine whether Carney will govern with a majority—or lead a potentially unstable minority government.
