Saturday, March 29, 2025
The battle for the future of the Roman Catholic Church is heating up as 135 cardinals prepare to enter the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope — a choice now more unpredictable than ever.
Most of the voting cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis himself over the past 12 years, and for many, this will be their first-ever conclave. With a wider geographic spread and younger age profile among the electors, the dynamics have shifted significantly.
A remarkable 80% of the cardinals eligible to vote were chosen by Francis, reflecting his efforts to diversify the College of Cardinals. Twenty of them were appointed as recently as December 2024. Many had never met before arriving in Rome following the Pope’s passing last Monday.
Although formal deliberations will begin next week, behind-the-scenes lobbying is already in full swing throughout the Vatican’s gardens, dining rooms, and corridors.
Historian Miles Pattenden noted that conversations about succession had likely started months ago, given the public knowledge of Pope Francis’s declining health.
More than 20 potential papal candidates — or papabili — have been identified by Vatican observers, but history shows early favorites often do not succeed. In fact, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, now Pope Francis, was not seen as a frontrunner back in 2013.
Notable conservative figures, including Raymond Burke and Gerhard Müller, are reportedly lobbying for a more orthodox successor, warning of possible divisions if the Church strays too far from traditional teachings.
Meanwhile, progressive cardinals such as Jean-Claude Hollerich, Timothy Radcliffe, and Michael Czerny represent a push for a more reform-minded papacy.
Critics have accused Francis of stacking the College with ideological allies, but experts argue his main goal was inclusivity. Under his leadership, appointments came from regions previously underrepresented — including Iran, Algeria, and Mongolia.
Today, only 39% of cardinal electors are European, compared to over 50% in 2013. Asia and Latin America each contribute 18%, with Africa at 12%. Francis also worked to lower the average age of the College, with several cardinals now under 60, and one as young as 44.
The conclave’s first votes are expected shortly after it convenes, and ballots will be cast twice daily until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority.
Pattenden highlighted the pressure cardinals will face to avoid a prolonged conclave, noting that the Catholic faithful might grow uneasy if the selection drags into summer.
In modern history, conclaves typically last two to three days. However, the stakes are now higher, with millions worldwide following developments — even sparking a booming betting market on who will be the next pope.
Top contenders according to bookmakers include Vatican diplomat Pietro Parolin and Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, but surprises remain likely.
As the cardinals prepare for a decision that will shape the future of the Church, the world watches — and waits.
