Saturday, March 29, 2025
Washington, October 30, 2025 — A dark cloud hangs over the US economy as the month-long government shutdown has triggered a severe data blackout, disrupting the release of vital federal economic statistics. Policymakers, financial institutions, and business owners are now struggling to make informed decisions amid widespread uncertainty.
The ongoing shutdown has halted key reports, from labor force size to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates, effectively blinding the world’s largest economy. On Thursday, the Commerce Department declined to release GDP figures for the July–September quarter, intensifying confusion about the state of US growth. Data on jobs, trade, and retail sales have already been delayed.
The political impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress continues, with both sides blaming each other for the shutdown. No immediate resolution is in sight, leaving millions dependent on food aid in limbo. Experts warn that the lack of official data could force companies to cut hiring and investments.
Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said the demand for reliable data has never been higher. “Every sector is trying to understand whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates,” she told AFP, noting that most institutions are finalizing their 2026 budgets this time of year.
Economist Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics said businesses are already cautious due to uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have reached a peak this year. “Companies will hold back hiring until they see data showing real improvement in demand or at least stability,” he said, adding that investors also rely on data to guide stock market strategies.
According to a report by Goldman Sachs, if the shutdown lasts until mid-November, most delayed statistics will not be available until December, raising the risk of missing October and November data entirely. Long warned that “if the shutdown drags on too long, October’s data could vanish altogether because it was never collected.”
In the absence of government releases, economists and policymakers are increasingly turning to private sector data, but analysts caution it is no substitute for official figures. Wendy Edelberg of the Brookings Institution said there is “extraordinary uncertainty” about labor supply factors — including how many people are working, seeking jobs, or leaving the country since early 2025.
Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, explained that despite recent strong GDP growth, underlying weaknesses remain. “Not every sector or household is performing equally well,” she said, adding that shutdowns are inherently damaging. “If you’re a government worker unsure about your next paycheck, you’ll likely skip dining out, delay travel, or postpone small but necessary purchases.”
The extended shutdown, experts warn, not only threatens short-term stability but could also distort economic planning and monetary policy for months to come — leaving the US economy flying blind.
